- The Nationals are -110 favorites vs the Pirates
- Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: MASN | SNPT
The Washington Nationals (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 7-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-12 ATS.
Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 2-0, 1.93 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-2, 7.21 ERA
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +154 | O 8.5 -118 | -110 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -102 | -110 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+22.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.40 Units / 75% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+14.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 77% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 77 away games (+1.84 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 91 of their last 163 games (+7.80 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 84 games at home (+2.95 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 84 games at home (+2.25 Units / 2% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 9-8 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -2.3% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -9.04% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.5 Units / 23.87% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -31.54% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 6-12 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -35.19% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -32.78% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -9.75% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 1.79% ROI
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +145 | 4.5 -190 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 27% (10 SO in 37 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (32/63) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
4 of Mitchell Parker’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has walked 4 of 27 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter walked 4 of 16 right-handed batters (25%) in his last start — tied for highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter has walked 5 of 21 batters (24%) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strike rate of just 41% (22/53) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 24% (13/53) against Bailey Falter on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .026.
The Nationals are just 31-46 (.403) after a win since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Nationals are 7-1 (.875) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .948 (2,332 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters had 298 extra-base hits out of 950 total hits (just 31%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .074 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .295 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .214 (56 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .654 (5,019 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 11 of 166 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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