- The Pirates are -135 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: MASN | SNPT
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) on Thursday, April 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 7-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-12 ATS.
Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 1-1, 7.37 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 0-1, 3.00 ERA
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -120 | +125 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +154 | U 8 +100 | -150 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+21.00 Units / 233% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+13.00 Units / 162% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andrew Heaney has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.80 Units / 85% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 163 games (+5.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 85 games at home (+1.95 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 85 games at home (+0.70 Units / 1% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 9-9 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -6.59% ROI).
- 7-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -14.36% ROI
- 11-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 17.63% ROI
- 7-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -24.56% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 7-12 against the Run Line (-7.2 Units / -28.63% ROI).
- 7-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -26.64% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -14.05% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 6.49% ROI
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .500 (18-for-36) against Trevor Williams this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (335/660) of the time in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (921/1,812) of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .500 (18-for-36) against Trevor Williams this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has an average fastball velocity of just 90.0 MPH this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.9 — second Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has a strikeout rate of 73% (16 SO in 22 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 54% (293/543) of the time in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 35-55 (.389) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 142-168 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .947 (2,338 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .070 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .509 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .085 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Pirates are batting just .173 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (156.0 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 4 of 111 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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