- The Rays are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Rays TV Channel: MAS2 | BSUN
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 38-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 38-43 ATS.
Nationals vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-3, 3.33 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 3-5, 4.21 ERA
Nationals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -115 | +135 |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -160 |
Nationals vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 72 games (+12.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 41 away games (+4.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 78 games (+22.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+6.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-33 against the Run Line (+11.38 Units / 11.15% ROI).
- 38-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 11.36% ROI
- 36-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -8.8% ROI
- 40-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.13 Units / 0.15% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 38-43 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -7.85% ROI).
- 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -9.32% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.56% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -7.94% ROI
Rays vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Siri (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zach Eflin (TB) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has walked 4 of 117 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .214 (9 Total Bases / 42 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (23-for-112) against Mitchell Parker this month (5 games) — tied for 13th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 88th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (7/27) against Mitchell Parker — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 6 of 337 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has not walked any of the 126 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin’s K:BB ratio is 10.5 (63/6) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 30 of 1,040 batters (3%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 28-47 (.373) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 49-91 (.350) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Rays are just 19-39 (.328) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .928 (1,658 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.082.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Nationals hitters have just 2,066 strikeouts in 10,376 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .360 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .669 (2,340 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
28% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .349 (3,552 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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