- The Rays are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Rays TV Channel: BSUN | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 38-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 39-43 ATS.
Nationals vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 5-6, 3.14 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-5, 5.21 ERA
Nationals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -115 | +135 |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -160 |
Nationals vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 73 games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 73 games (+11.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 75 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 42 away games (+3.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 79 games (+23.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 73 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-34 against the Run Line (+9.98 Units / 9.65% ROI).
- 38-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 10.05% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.13 Units / 1.26% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 39-43 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -6.68% ROI).
- 41-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -8.18% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.78% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.1 Units / -6.74% ROI
Rays vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Siri (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zach Eflin (TB) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (352/1,007) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (74/355) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (112/311) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (503/1,471) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (74/244) against Aaron Civale this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (80/244) against Aaron Civale this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since the 2022 season is 382.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 398.3
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .515 (69 Total Bases / 134 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 28-47 (.373) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 52-199 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are just 12-25 (.324) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Rays are just 19-39 (.328) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .929 (1,661 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.082.
Nationals hitters have just 522 strikeouts in 2,698 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays have scored first in 68% of their road games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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