The Baltimore Orioles (+125) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Friday, March 1, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in North Port, FL.
This season, the Orioles are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 2-1 ATS.
Orioles vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +125 |
| Braves | -150 |
Orioles vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 away games (+3.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chadwick Tromp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 82 away games (+26.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 82 away games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 2-2 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 10.11% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 82.08% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -4.6% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 2-1 against the Run Line (+0.39 Units / 8.37% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 95.31% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.47 Units / -100% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Wells allowed a BABIP of .170 against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .211 (39-for-185) against Tyler Wells in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells allowed a BABIP of .200 in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters chased just 53 of Tyler Wells’ 260 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder had an average fastball velocity of just 89.8 MPH in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — second Percentile.
Bryce Elder had a strikeout rate of just 17% (128/732) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 51% (270/532) against Bryce Elder in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 72-12 (.857) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Orioles are 55-57 (.491) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Orioles were 22-26 (.458) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves were 28-46 (.378) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers had allowed 177 home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
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