- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Orioles vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Pirates TV Channel: MAS2 | MLBN | SNPT
The Baltimore Orioles (-135) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Friday, April 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:12pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Orioles are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-1 ATS.
Orioles vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 1-0, 1.50 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-0, 4.77 ERA
Orioles vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -115 | -135 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -105 | +115 |
Orioles vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB game with 59.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+11.30 Units / 141% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 3-3 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 8.33% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 10.36% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 10.29% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -20.31% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 6-1 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 70.27% ROI).
- 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 63.13% ROI
- 6-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 64.05% ROI
- 1-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -72.9% ROI
Pirates vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| McCutchen | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Reynolds | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tellez | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
Pirates vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rodriguez | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 44% (7/16) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (3/12) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 41% (9 SO in 22 PAs) this season — 3rd best among in AL; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (17/22) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Jones has a strikeout rate of 43% (10 SO in 23 PAs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (22/48) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 44% (7/16) against Jared Jones this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (11/26) against Jared Jones on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 41-51 (.446) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Orioles were 25-21 (.543) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Orioles were 55-10 (.846) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Orioles were 26-19 (.578) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 104-23 (.819) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Pirates are just 143-188 (.432) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Pirates are just 40-70 (.364) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .473 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Orioles were 37-16 (.698) against the run line (28.9% ROI) after a road win in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .219 (128 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Orioles are batting .255 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .166.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have scored 23 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .497 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Pirates hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 5% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 11 of 215 batters (5%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Orioles have won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,206 of 12,774 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.61 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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