- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Orioles vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Pirates TV Channel: MAS2 | SNPT | ESPN+
The Baltimore Orioles (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Orioles are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-2 ATS.
Orioles vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer 0-0, 4.77 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 0-0, 1.80 ERA
Orioles vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Orioles vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tony Kemp has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 110% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 95 of their last 153 games (+33.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 76 away games (+25.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 away games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 10.63% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 4.88% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 7.18% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -15.2% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 7-2 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 48.77% ROI).
- 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 52.5% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 48.99% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -57.07% ROI
Pirates vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mountcastle | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Westburg | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Reynolds | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Tellez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzales | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Kremer | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has located his pitches away 71% of the time (60/85) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Dean Kremer located 57% of his pitches away (1,656/2,925) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Dean Kremer located 56% of his pitches away (407/732) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has located his pitches away 56% of the time (365/649) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (3/31) against Marco Gonzales this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 17.0 innings pitched — the longest active streak is 18.1.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.6 MPH since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 16-6 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles are 27-21 (.562) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Orioles were 25-21 (.543) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 33-44 (.429) after a home win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 12-17 (.414) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .467 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Orioles hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 43 total hits (54%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Orioles are 105-59 (.640) against the run line (16.4% ROI) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Orioles are 38-17 (.691) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 151 of their 404 plate appearances (37%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .499 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 17 of 296 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 3 of 74 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,209 of 12,856 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Pirates pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 10 double plays in 64 opportunities (16%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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