- The Red Sox are -140 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Orioles are 16-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 25-25 ATS.
Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-3, 5.27 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 4.07 ERA
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -210 | O 9 +100 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +160 | U 9 -120 | -125 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.30 Units / 166% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.85 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+18.10 Units / 302% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.48 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.99 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.94 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.26 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 15-32 against the Run Line (-19.76 Units / -32.55% ROI).
- 16-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.5 Units / -39.78% ROI
- 23-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.83 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 22-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.37 Units / -6.33% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 25-25 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.33% ROI).
- 25-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.86 Units / -12.58% ROI
- 24-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.37 Units / -7.76% ROI
- 26-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.09% ROI
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ramon Urias (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .347 (60-for-173) against Zach Eflin when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — third Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (24 Total Bases / 24 ABs) over the past seven days (1 game) — highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .376 — second Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 2% of right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 2% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .425 (40 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (8/40) against Brayan Bello in late innings since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of .954 (40 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .487 — first Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .425 (40 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 2-13 (.133) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Orioles are just 8-15 (.348) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .561.
The Orioles are just 4-28 (.125) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Orioles are just 15-3 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 6-76 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox are just 43-160 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .555 (490 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
The Orioles are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-56.1% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .758 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox are batting .375 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.32 (208.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
The Orioles have allowed 6.61 runs per game (152/23) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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