- The Orioles are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Orioles vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Reds TV Channel: MAS2 | BSOH
The Baltimore Orioles (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 21-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 17-15 ATS.
Orioles vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: John Means 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 1-3, 3.28 ERA
Orioles vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +100 |
Orioles vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+25.10 Units / 132% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+12.55 Units / 82% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 31 games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.25 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 23 games (+19.40 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 130 games (+25.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 65 away games (+21.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 65 away games (+17.67 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 away games (+14.56 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 128 games (+15.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 66 games at home (+3.23 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 19-13 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 25.87% ROI).
- 21-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 8.52% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 5.11% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -13.07% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 17-15 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.41% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -3.49% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 3.53% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -13.86% ROI
Reds vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Reds vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Reds vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
John Means has limited playing time.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 7 of 54 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (32/95) against Andrew Abbott this season — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (15/63) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (2-for-32) against Andrew Abbott when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Orioles are 55-41 (.573) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 45-55 (.450) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Orioles are 33-58 (.363) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Reds are just 44-49 (.473) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 23-25 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 44-19 (.698) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Reds are 22-8 (.733) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have drawn 53 walks in 809 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .321 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Orioles have an average Exit Velocity of 90.5 MPH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Orioles hitters are slugging .444 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .121 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .166.
Reds hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 69 total hits (46%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .210 (638 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 80 of 1,174 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .363 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,328 of 13,729 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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