- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Royals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSKC
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Sunday, April 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Orioles are 13-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 13-8 ATS.
Orioles vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin 0-1, 6.76 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 3-0, 1.03 ERA
Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Grayson Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.40 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Lugo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 147 games (+29.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 71 away games (+24.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 69 away games (+19.47 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 69 away games (+14.61 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+12.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-8 against the Run Line (+6.8 Units / 31.41% ROI).
- 13-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 12.63% ROI
- 13-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 33.26% ROI
- 5-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -42.86% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 13-8 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 9.54% ROI).
- 13-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 20.38% ROI
- 8-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -23.53% ROI
- 12-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 15.08% ROI
Royals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nelson Velazquez (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Royals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Irvin has a strike rate of 81% (52/64) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 67% (12/18) against Cole Irvin with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (68/385) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Cole Irvin has a strike rate of 71% (534/750) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 27% (13 SO in 49 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 6% (2 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — lowest among in AL; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 6% (2 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 13% (13 SO in 101 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among in AL; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 85-13 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Orioles are 37-21 (.638) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Orioles are 146-9 (.942) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals are just 13-85 (.133) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Royals are just 18-13 (.581) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Royals are just 11-15 (.423) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Royals are just 17-44 (.279) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
28% of Orioles hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .260 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Orioles hitters are slugging .351 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Orioles are 207-135 (.602) against the run line (13.3% ROI) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,290 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 48 of 753 batters (6%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Orioles won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Royals pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
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