- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Twins Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Orioles / Twins TV Channel: MASN | TWTV
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Orioles are 13-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 19-17 ATS.
Orioles vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 0-6, 9.77 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 2-2, 4.18 ERA
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+25.60 Units / 320% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+13.70 Units / 196% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.80 Units / 80% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.30 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.24 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.64 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-22 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -26.13% ROI).
- 13-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -30.58% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -6.52% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 19-17 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 6.46% ROI).
- 16-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -16.03% ROI
- 13-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -22.9% ROI
- 20-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 14.78% ROI
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (BAL) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -175 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 35% of the time (228/658) when behind in the count in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 46% of the time (664/1,432) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton allowed an OBP of .364 (269 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has an ERA of 9.76 (27.2 IP)this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Simeon Woods Richardson has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 4 double plays in 142 opportunities (3%) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .415 (22 GB hits out of 53 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of .648 (68 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .374 — first Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of .595 (22 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .308 — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are just 2-11 (.154) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Orioles are 73-27 (.730) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Orioles were just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are just 2-81 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 18-34 (.346) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Orioles (fourth best runs scored) today.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.329 (221 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.035.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .496 (387 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .258 (387 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .238 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Twins were just 14-29 (.326) against the run line (-32.5% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Twins hitters are averaging 4.20 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.14 (154.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.73.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 70 double plays in 1,033 opportunities (7%) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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