- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Astros
- Padres vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Astros TV Channel: FS1 | SCHN | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+100) on Saturday, April 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Padres are 15-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-10 ATS.
Padres vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 3-0, 2.38 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 1-1, 4.00 ERA
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -120 | -120 |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | U 8 +100 | +100 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Michael King has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+15.40 Units / 385% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 47% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 168 games (+19.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 168 games (+7.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 162 games (+19.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 162 games (+5.70 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 80 games at home (+0.75 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-6 against the Run Line (+8.05 Units / 30.78% ROI).
- 15-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.3 Units / 37.94% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -8.72% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.9% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 9-10 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -1.24% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -12.76% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -9.74% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.72% ROI
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski (HOU) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .097 (3 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .097 (3-for-31) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 96th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an OPS of just .319 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .654 — 100th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .170 (8 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 97th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Wesneski allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (39 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on low fastballs in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — first Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has not walked any of the 47 batters that they have faced in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .074 (2-for-27) against Hayden Wesneski this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (11/51) against Hayden Wesneski with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 38% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 12-1 (.923) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
The Padres are 2-4 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) after a win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros were 20-18 (.526) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mariners (21st best runs scored) today.
The Astros are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .204 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have an OBP of .469 (64 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (926/6,107 PA’s) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have allowed 2.85 runs per game (57/20) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
The Padres have allowed 1.46 runs per game (19/13) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Padres pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers walked 544 of 6,019 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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