- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Astros
- Padres vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Astros TV Channel: ESPN
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Sunday, April 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Padres are 15-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 10-10 ATS.
Padres vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-1, 6.65 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 1-2, 4.99 ERA
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -115 | +110 |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -105 | -135 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+14.40 Units / 288% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 168 games (+19.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 168 games (+7.55 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 162 games (+20.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 162 games (+5.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 161 games (+1.70 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-7 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 25.97% ROI).
- 15-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.1 Units / 32.1% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -13.1% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 3.43% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 10-10 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 2.71% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -8.23% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.15 Units / -14.22% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 5.26% ROI
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .361 against Dylan Cease vs right-handed batters this season — third worst among qualified SPs– third Percentile. Right handed batters hit just .189 (66-for-349) against him last season — third best among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 60% of the time (42/70) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .163 (41-for-252) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 50% of the time (1,719/3,417) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
7 of Framber Valdez’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (322/533) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
7 of Framber Valdez’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (291/473) against Framber Valdez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 2-4 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .110.
The Padres are 76-8 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 66-42 (.611) after a win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are just 13-23 (.361) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 8-2 (.800) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .275 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 1,077 times in 6,105 PA’s (18%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .204 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters had an OPS of .809 (1,801 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Astros are batting .367 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have allowed 2.86 runs per game (60/21) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers walked 544 of 6,019 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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