- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Brewers
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: PDTV | BSWI | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) on Monday, April 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Padres are 8-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 9-4 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 1-2, 7.01 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 1-0, 1.80 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -110 | -125 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -110 | +105 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Padres Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 8-8 against the Run Line (+1.97 Units / 11.04% ROI).
- 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.46 Units / -2.29% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.47 Units / 2.64% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -9.13% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 9-4 against the Run Line (+5.15 Units / 26.96% ROI).
- 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.5 Units / 51.55% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 33.33% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -40.48% ROI
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ross (MIL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .611 (22-for-36) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: .336 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .611 (22-for-36) against Joe Musgrove in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .326 — first Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .430 (86 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — second Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .081 (3 Total Bases / 37 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best among in NL; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (13/47) against Joe Ross on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Joe Ross has located his fastball up for a strike just 38% (18/47) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown his slider 46% of the time (74/160) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Ross has a strike rate of just 58% (93/160) this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Padres are just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 79-13 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 25-10 (.714) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Brewers were 19-39 (.328) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 24 walks in 139 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 25 total hits (52%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 144 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers are batting .306 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers are batting just .173 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .203 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 35 of 521 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.80 (782.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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