- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: PDTV | BSWI | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Padres are 11-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 9-7 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 2-0, 4.19 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+19.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Joe Musgrove has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+7.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+6.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.70 Units / 69% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 138 games (+14.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 11-9 against the Run Line (+4.27 Units / 18.26% ROI).
- 11-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.94 Units / 7.98% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.47 Units / 11.16% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -17.71% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 9-7 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 6.36% ROI).
- 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 24.23% ROI
- 12-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.75 Units / 43.91% ROI
- 4-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -51.41% ROI
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has walked 12 of 46 left-handed batters (26%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Michael King has walked 13 of 88 batters (15%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (75/246) against Michael King in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Michael King has a strike rate of just 54% (103/190) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 74% (26 SO in 35 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 39% (26 SO in 66 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has struck out 42% (18/43) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .038 (1-for-26) against Freddy Peralta’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .214 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Padres are just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers were 24-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Brewers are 23-45 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 26 walks in 173 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers are batting .306 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .365 (379 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Brewers hitters have 145 extra-base hits out of 554 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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