- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: PDTV | FDWI
The San Diego Padres (+118) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Friday, June 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI, WI.
This season, the Padres are 35-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 32-29 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 4.06 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Chad Patrick 3-4, 3.00 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -102 | +118 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -118 | -145 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+17.80 Units / 254% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+11.50 Units / 128% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+7.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 59 games (+12.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 32-29 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.19% ROI).
- 35-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 3.13% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -17.94% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 8.89% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 32-29 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -3.22% ROI).
- 34-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 6.64% ROI
- 24-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -22.95% ROI
- 36-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 14.18% ROI
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Patrick (MIL) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
| Randy Vasquez (SD) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 10% (39/404) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez struck out just 8% (16/198) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OBP of .409 (323 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .314 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .311 (110-for-354) against Randy Vasquez since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (18/70) against Chad Patrick in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (49/186) against Chad Patrick this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (32/88) against Chad Patrick this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (19/88) against Chad Patrick this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 7-17 (.292) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Padres are 19-9 (.679) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .552.
The Padres are 19-4 (.826) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 53-5 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Brewers are 217-168 (.564) since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers were 47-34 (.580) at home in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers were 26-21 (.553) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Rockies (30th best runs allowed) today.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Padres hitters have chased 43% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .642 (1,013 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,343 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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