- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: FOX
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Saturday, June 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI, WI.
This season, the Padres are 36-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 32-30 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 3-1, 3.41 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 4-1, 2.77 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.80 Units / 210% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 105% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+13.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 60 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 33-29 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.05% ROI).
- 36-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 25-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -19.39% ROI
- 35-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 10.21% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 32-30 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -4.32% ROI).
- 34-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 4.53% ROI
- 24-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -24.24% ROI
- 37-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.75 Units / 15.41% ROI
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Jose Quintana (MIL) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 18% (28/155) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 7th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 57% (451/786) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 49% (469/961) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown just 40% of his pitches in the strike zone (1,073/2,708) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 7-17 (.292) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Padres were 66-8 (.892) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are 86-12 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Padres are 64-49 (.566) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 120-96 (.556) after a win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Brewers were 40-28 (.588) after a loss in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Brewers were 74-4 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Brewers are 53-5 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .635 (1,050 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .465 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Brewers hitters drew 169 walks in 1,640 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,365 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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