- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Friday, April 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 7-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 5-4 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 1-0, 0.82 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -170 | O 6.5 +105 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | U 6.5 -125 | -165 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+10.00 Units / 333% ROI)
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+16.30 Units / 407% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 6-1 against the Run Line (+6.6 Units / 81.99% ROI).
- 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 76.44% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -30.07% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 21.15% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.75% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 9.05% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 40.72% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -46.04% ROI
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has a strike rate of just 52% (48/92) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strike rate of just 53% (29/55) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 23% (4/17) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 34% of Randy Vasquez’s pitches (31/92) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga walked 9 of 257 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has walked 2 of 16 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 13th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .166 (43-for-259) against Shota Imanaga when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga allowed an OBP of just .222 (261 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 133-21 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Padres are 20-14 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres were 67-6 (.918) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are just 142-21 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .275 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 1,766 strikeouts in 9,130 PA’s (19%) against RHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .308 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have scored 29 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
The Cubs have scored 60 runs this season — most in MLB.
The Cubs are batting just .225 at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Cubs are batting .257 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres pitchers have picked-off 1 runner from first base this season — tied for best in MLB.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 140 of 1,516 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 13 of 79 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Padres vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
