- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Cubs
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 7-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 6-4 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 1-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +180 | O 7 -115 | +100 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -220 | U 7 -105 | -120 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+10.00 Units / 333% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+15.30 Units / 306% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 6-2 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 51.81% ROI).
- 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 59.72% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -38.86% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 29.78% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 10.1% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 16.38% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 26.39% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -32.59% ROI
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CLE) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .742 (167 Total Bases / 225 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .746 (312 Total Bases / 418 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta allowed a slugging percentage of .766 (167 Total Bases / 218 ABs) in non-two strike counts in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .561 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .179 (730 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 70% (14/20) against Matthew Boyd with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (8/20) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd allowed a slugging percentage of just .263 (20 Total Bases / 76 ABs) on elevated fastballs in 2023 — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 91st Percentile.
44% of Matthew Boyd’s called strikeouts were elevated in 2023 — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 20-14 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres are 133-21 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 143-21 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,657 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres are batting .322 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have scored 32 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
The Cubs are batting .278 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .663 (3,003 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Cubs hitters have drawn 34 walks in 215 PA’s (16%) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have picked-off 1 runner from first base this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 140 of 1,525 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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