- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-135) on Sunday, April 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 7-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 7-4 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Kyle Hart 1-0, 3.86 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 1-1, 5.88 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -120 | +115 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 +100 | -135 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+10.00 Units / 333% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.30 Units / 238% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 82 away games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games at home (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 6-3 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 23.63% ROI).
- 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 45.26% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -24.12% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 16.67% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 7-4 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 21.82% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 22.75% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 32.08% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -38.11% ROI
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Justin Turner (CHC: Runs batted in | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown (CHC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Kyle Hart (SD) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hart has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (12 Total Bases / 15 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .391 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .333 (5-for-15) against Kyle Hart this season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 12th Percentile.
Kyle Hart has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 43% (6/14) of opposing batters this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Kyle Hart has thrown off-speed pitches 66% of the time (53/80) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total NonFB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (38/87) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (16/40) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (16/36) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (59/140) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 133-21 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Padres were 66-8 (.892) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs were 32-10 (.762) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Cubs are 79-47 (.627) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Padres (eighth best runs scored) today.
The Cubs are just 144-21 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 304 strikeouts in 1,757 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have just 826 strikeouts in 4,666 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .202 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have scored 38 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
The Cubs are batting just .225 at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs hitters had an OPS of .764 (1,948 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,047 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 55% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 140 of 1,534 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers walked 127 of 1,437 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (769.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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