- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Cubs
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-110) on Monday, May 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 18-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 23-12 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 1-1, 3.46 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 0-0, 1.93 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 7 +100 | -110 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 7 -120 | -110 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+27.50 Units / 212% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+11.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+13.25 Units / 76% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 129 games (+10.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 18-19 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 6.68% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -14.63% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 23-12 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 16.91% ROI).
- 21-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 19.55% ROI
- 15-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -18.22% ROI
- 20-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 9.52% ROI
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Arraez (MIA) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .211 — first Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (12 Total Bases / 15 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .359 — third Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 48% of the time (261/542) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 48% of the time (126/261) on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (219/472) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,415/3,286) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (547/1,245) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has walked 9 of 269 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 5-16 (.238) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 7-135 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 4-145 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 37-39 (.487) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 68 total hits (56%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Padres hitters have drawn 984 walks in 9,877 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .760 (1,088 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
The Padres are batting .196 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .841 (379 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,965 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Cubs are batting .268 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .800 (248 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 8 of 206 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since last season (4,788 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (4,914 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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