- The Diamondbacks are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: ATV
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 38-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 32-36 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 3-1, 2.96 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 2-2, 4.57 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -115 | +110 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -105 | -135 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+18.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+15.05 Units / 150% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.50 Units / 193% ROI)
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 84% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.30 Units / 63% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 90% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 52 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 37-30 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 4.08% ROI).
- 38-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 3.74% ROI
- 27-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -19.66% ROI
- 38-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.85 Units / 10.52% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 32-36 against the Run Line (-8.56 Units / -9.82% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -8.96% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -4.58% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -3.98% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Stephen Kolek has walked 28% of left-handed batters this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (8/71) against Stephen Kolek this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (136/682) against Stephen Kolek since last season — 8th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 8.25 (55.2 IP) at home in 2023 — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.14 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (92/297) against Ryne Nelson since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (24/66) against Ryne Nelson this season — tied for highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 23 of Ryne Nelson’s 116 off-speed pitches out of the zone (20%) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Padres are 22-14 (.611) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres were 93-69 (.574) in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 27-20 (.574) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are 95-24 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Diamondbacks are 161-42 (.789) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks are 11-155 (.066) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Diamondbacks are just 178-14 (.927) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have chased 43% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks batted .284 against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .476 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (4,415 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Diamondbacks batted .276 at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,498 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (4,288 batted balls) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
More MLB Reading:
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