- The Diamondbacks are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 38-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 33-37 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 6-2, 3.50 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 6-2, 3.19 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+13.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+10.05 Units / 100% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+15.20 Units / 217% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 16 away games (+12.50 Units / 67% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.15 Units / 74% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 38-31 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 3.12% ROI).
- 38-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 28-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -19.22% ROI
- 39-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.75 Units / 10.09% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 33-37 against the Run Line (-8.06 Units / -9.04% ROI).
- 36-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -6.6% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -4.57% ROI
- 33-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -3.99% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated sliders33% of the time (72/220) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .159 (151 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (9-for-70) against Nick Pivetta’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 94th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown 57% of his pitches in the strike zone (313/552) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 52% — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .150 (18-for-120) against Merrill Kelly when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .087 (2 Total Bases / 23 ABs) vs left-handed batters in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .385 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .190 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly walked 25 of 207 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 7-21 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Padres were 66-8 (.892) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres were 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are 149-27 (.847) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are 12-155 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Diamondbacks are 3-30 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Diamondbacks are 96-24 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Diamondbacks are 11-7 (.611) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Padres (eighth best runs allowed) today.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .779 (8,985 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Diamondbacks batted .284 against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this month (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this month (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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