- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Friday, May 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 16-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 15-17 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-2, 2.78 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 1-1, 2.25 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -105 | -110 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -115 | -110 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+20.30 Units / 107% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.15 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kevin Newman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.50 Units / 292% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.95 Units / 80% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+10.75 Units / 79% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 131 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 16-18 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.88% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -9.59% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 4.88% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -13.19% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 15-17 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -9.3% ROI).
- 14-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -16.58% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -19.46% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 11% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .225 (138 PAs) this season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 68 of 637 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .090 (6-for-67) against Dylan Cease this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
6 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 2nd most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Slade Cecconi this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed an OBP of just .163 (43 PA’s) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed an OPS of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .662 — 97th Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed an OPS of just .382 (43 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .698 — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Padres are just 85-14 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Padres are just 7-134 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 145-15 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 128-23 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 82-9 (.901) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Diamondbacks are 79-20 (.798) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,003 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Padres are batting just .183 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .617 (304 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .860 (429 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Diamondbacks are batting .314 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .486 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .393 (145 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,713 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 25% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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