- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Giants
- Padres vs Giants Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Giants TV Channel: NSBA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-120) on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45pm EDT in San Francisco, CA.
This season, the Padres are 35-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 28-34 ATS.
Padres vs Giants Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-4, 4.72 ERA
- Giants starting pitcher: Robbie Ray 7-1, 2.45 ERA
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -125 | +100 |
| Giants | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 +105 | -120 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+21.20 Units / 212% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wilmer Flores has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+9.70 Units / 139% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+1.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 68% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+1.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+0.65 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 32-28 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.09% ROI).
- 35-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 4.48% ROI
- 25-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -16.55% ROI
- 33-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 7.54% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Giants are 28-34 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -5.32% ROI).
- 34-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -1.69% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -12.15% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 2.39% ROI
Giants vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Giants vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jung-hoo Lee (SF) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Giants vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Giants vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray (SF) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 61% of the time (132/218) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 58% of the time (126/218) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 10% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Dylan Cease threw breaking pitches 60% of the time (966/1,609) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .156 (15-for-96) against Robbie Ray when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 94th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has walked 11% of right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .116 (5-for-43) against Robbie Ray over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has allowed an OBP of just .174 (46 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Padres are 16-79 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Padres are 5-20 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Padres are 86-12 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 19-2 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .813.
The Giants are 26-159 (.141) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Giants are 10-3 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Giants are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have drawn walks in 16% of their PA’s against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants hitters had an OPS of just .475 (3,303 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Giants are just 43-66 (.394) against the run line (-24.7% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Padres (eighth best runs scored) today.
Giants hitters had an OPS of just .683 (1,790 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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