- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Padres vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Mets TV Channel: WPIX | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-130) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+110) on Sunday, June 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Padres are 37-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 32-37 ATS.
Padres vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 6-5, 3.36 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 1-3, 3.51 ERA
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 7 +100 | -130 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -120 | +110 |
Padres vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+15.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games at home (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+9.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.55 Units / 92% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 away games (+2.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 36-38 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.44% ROI).
- 37-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -5.31% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -3.29% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 32-37 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -8.42% ROI).
- 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -9.27% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -3.09% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -5.01% ROI
Mets vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 47% of the time (659/1,394) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (1,438/2,423) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 55% of the time (124/227) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .454 (141 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tylor Megill since the 2022 season is 415.0 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 398.2
Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (365/678) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .395 (151-for-382) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres are just 1-100 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Padres are 89-16 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are just 25-6 (.806) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .941.
The Mets are just 20-10 (.667) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Mets are 5-28 (.152) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Mets are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .849.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .280 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .379 (347 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .333.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have just 910 strikeouts in 4,457 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .271 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .890 (488 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.036.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,163 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,477 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,677 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 121 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 623 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 269 of 2,656 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 3 of 99 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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