- The Orioles are -210 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+165) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-200) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Padres are 55-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 54-48 ATS.
Padres vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 1-3, 7.85 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 12-4, 3.85 ERA
Padres vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -120 | O 9 -110 | +165 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -110 | -200 |
Padres vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 34 games (+33.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Tyler Wade has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.40 Units / 91% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+11.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 46 games (+35.65 Units / 77% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+22.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+13.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 away games (+17.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 93 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 87 games (+11.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 55 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 54-51 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 3.58% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -3.37% ROI
- 54-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.35% ROI
- 50-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.8 Units / -8.4% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 54-48 against the Run Line (+14 Units / 11.84% ROI).
- 61-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 3.24% ROI
- 53-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.65 Units / 10.52% ROI
- 38-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.5 Units / -18.38% ROI
Orioles vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Orioles vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Orioles vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Orioles vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Mazur (SD) | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
| Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (10/79) against Adam Mazur this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (8/30) against Adam Mazur this month (2 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Adam Mazur has an ERA of 9.35 (8.2 IP)this month (2 games) — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 4.16 — fourth Percentile.
Adam Mazur has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (15/30) of opposing batters this month (2 games) — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a .471 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth worst)– fifth Percentile and just .318 vs left-handed batters this season (fifth best among qualified SPs)– 92nd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (48/150) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (95/243) against Grayson Rodriguez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (107/316) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Padres are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Padres are just 7-105 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Orioles are 53-30 (.639) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Orioles are 57-44 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Padres are batting .276 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 706 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 58 strikeouts in 372 PA’s (16%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,218 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .263 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Orioles hitters are slugging .451 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (440.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Padres pitchers have walked 15 of 294 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .204 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Orioles pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 2.86 (261.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Orioles vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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