- The Orioles are -160 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+130) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-155) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Padres are 57-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 54-50 ATS.
Padres vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-5, 4.20 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Albert Suarez 5-4, 3.49 ERA
Padres vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 9 -105 | +130 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -115 | -155 |
Padres vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 36 games (+31.50 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.40 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 48 games (+38.35 Units / 80% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+21.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 48 games (+11.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 10 games (+11.55 Units / 107% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 53 away games (+20.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 89 games (+11.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 95 games (+11.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 56-51 against the Run Line (+7.25 Units / 5.38% ROI).
- 57-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.35% ROI
- 56-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 1.37% ROI
- 50-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -10.17% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 54-50 against the Run Line (+11.3 Units / 9.34% ROI).
- 61-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 1.11% ROI
- 55-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.65 Units / 12.1% ROI
- 38-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.8 Units / -20.03% ROI
Orioles vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Orioles vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Orioles vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of .984 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .686 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .318 (88-for-277) against Randy Vasquez this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .243 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (99/346) against Randy Vasquez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has not walked any of the 21 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .195 (8-for-41) against Albert Suarez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.
Albert Suarez has a strike rate of just 60% (236/394) in two strike counts this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (10/50) against Albert Suarez on inside fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Albert Suarez has allowed three-ball counts to 26% of batters they faced (80/312 PA’s) this season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 19% — seventh Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Padres are 32-23 (.582) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Padres are just 1-111 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are 30-22 (.577) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Orioles are 53-30 (.639) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Orioles are 98-63 (.609) after a win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Orioles are 85-16 (.842) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .450 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Orioles are 56-27 (.675) against the run line (31.0% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .800 (1,249 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,504 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 299 batters (6%) over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Orioles vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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