- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Monday, June 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Padres are 37-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 39-32 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 1-3, 4.93 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 3-3, 2.99 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -120 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 +100 | -185 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 60.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+23.00 Units / 575% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 47 games (+19.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games (+16.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+14.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 40 games (+15.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 games at home (+11.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.55 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 away games (+1.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 53 games (+20.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+19.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 54 games (+19.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 54 games (+17.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 27 games at home (+17.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 36-39 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.66% ROI).
- 37-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -4.02% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -4.52% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 39-32 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 8.14% ROI).
- 47-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 11.14% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -9.67% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.83% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.133 (17 Total Bases / 15 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .354 — second Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .957 (22 Total Bases / 23 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .388 — second Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.663 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .640 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .323 (51-for-158) against Randy Vasquez this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .241 — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (130/216) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (33/49) against Cristopher Sanchez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (53/83) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (118/178) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Padres are just 1-101 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 10-152 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 19-36 (.345) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 41-5 (.891) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .058.
The Phillies are 14-10 (.583) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Phillies are 7-15 (.318) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .280 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,918 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Padres hitters have just 355 strikeouts in 1,918 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .327 (6,399 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .253 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 73% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .773 (4,535 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,705 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 129 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .124 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since last season (5,734 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 54% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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