- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Padres are 37-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-32 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 5-4, 3.60 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 8-3, 3.51 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+18.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+15.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+16.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+15.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 39% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 73% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 away games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 54 games (+21.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 57 games (+20.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 55 games (+20.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 55 games (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 28 games at home (+18.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 36-40 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.85% ROI).
- 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 38-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.76% ROI
- 37-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.76% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 40-32 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 9.19% ROI).
- 48-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 11.81% ROI
- 32-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -8.27% ROI
- 35-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.57% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has recorded 18 of his 38 strikeouts (47%) vs left-handed batters with his changeup this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .185 (34 Total Bases / 184 ABs) on changeups since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (7-for-56) against Michael King with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 38% (24 SO in 63 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (423/1,322) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (89/258) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .128 (14 GB hits out of 109 GBs) against Aaron Nola this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 89-17 (.840) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres are just 19-36 (.345) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Padres are just 1-102 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 7-1 (.875) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Phillies are 42-5 (.894) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 11-7 (.611) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
The Phillies are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .059.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have just 167 strikeouts in 923 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .196 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .305 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .375 (317 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .333.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,544 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,740 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .122 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies have won 54% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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