- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: ATV
The San Diego Padres (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Padres are 19-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-20 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-2, 5.77 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-2, 3.97 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | U 8 -105 | +125 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+10.70 Units / 153% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 69% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 68% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.42 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 45% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+0.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 17-13 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 6.93% ROI).
- 19-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 19.15% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -19.32% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 10.04% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-20 against the Run Line (-11 Units / -26.96% ROI).
- 12-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -21.54% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -9.97% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 1.98% ROI
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jason Heyward (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (324/927) against Dylan Cease since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .189 (66-for-349) against Dylan Cease in the 2024 season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 96th Percentile.
Dylan Cease had a strikeout rate of 34% (98/292) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 2% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .512 (152 Total Bases / 297 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 22-16 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres are 92-28 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Padres were 66-8 (.892) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are 12-69 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 7-54 (.115) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 11-37 (.229) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .202 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 34% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .510 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have allowed 0.53 runs per game (16/30) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have allowed 1.94 runs per game (35/18) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Padres vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
