- The Padres are -118 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-102) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-118) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Padres are 20-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-21 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 1-3, 4.28 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 1-3, 5.87 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -105 | -102 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -115 | -118 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+9.70 Units / 121% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.57 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+3.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 18-13 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 9.83% ROI).
- 20-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 21% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -15.67% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 6.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-21 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -29.55% ROI).
- 12-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -23.61% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -6.9% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.96% ROI
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Adam Frazier (PIT) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Brandon Lockridge (SD) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 27% (72 SO in 264 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 8% (28/345) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 7% (18/265) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez allowed an OBP of .421 (197 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .312 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (806/1,915) in non-two strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 42% of his pitches inside (905/2,138) in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (973/2,037) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (319/718) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 68-44 (.607) after a win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Padres are 13-6 (.684) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Padres are 42-16 (.724) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Padres are 17-10 (.630) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 11-37 (.229) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 7-55 (.113) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .378 since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 25% of it’s PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.66 (163.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.66.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have allowed 0.52 runs per game (16/31) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.31.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 43% of the time after an opposing score since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 43% of the time after an opposing score this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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