- The Padres are -102 favorites vs the Pirates
- Padres vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Padres are 21-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-22 ATS.
Padres vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 2-2, 2.53 ERA
Padres vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -118 | +100 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 9 -102 | -120 |
Padres vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Brandon Lockridge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.57 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 19-13 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 11.72% ROI).
- 21-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.4 Units / 22.93% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -18.12% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 9.28% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-22 against the Run Line (-13.5 Units / -31.18% ROI).
- 12-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -25.96% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -9.4% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 1.73% ROI
Pirates vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 18% (28/155) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 7th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 57% (89/156) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 8th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 92nd Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of just .374 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .685 — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .487 (152 Total Bases / 312 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — sixth Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (360/871) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OBP of just .167 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .299 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Padres are 55-40 (.579) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 7-55 (.113) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 0-11 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .271 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 35% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters had 68 extra-base hits out of 233 total hits (just 29%) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.66 (163.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.69.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres have allowed 1.94 runs per game (35/18) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Padres have allowed 0.50 runs per game (16/32) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.31.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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