- The Padres are -105 favorites vs the Rangers
- Padres vs Rangers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Rangers TV Channel: PDTV | BSSW
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-115) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington, TX.
This season, the Padres are 46-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 39-45 ATS.
Padres vs Rangers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 7-6, 3.85 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi 4-3, 3.49 ERA
Padres vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -105 | -105 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -115 | -115 |
Padres vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+22.10 Units / 246% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 42 away games (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 74% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+16.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+7.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 45-43 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 3.54% ROI).
- 46-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -3.52% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.43% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.35% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 39-45 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -10.25% ROI).
- 38-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -14.01% ROI
- 32-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.8 Units / -22.45% ROI
- 48-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.1 Units / 14.22% ROI
Rangers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Rangers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcus Semien (TEX) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Rangers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rangers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -115 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 53% of the time (150/282) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (4,442/8,074) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (15/22) against Dylan Cease — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 42% (19 SO in 45 PAs) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nathan Eovaldi allowed a batting average of just .129 vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 93rd Percentile and .450 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (worst among qualified SPs)– first Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a just .226 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for seventh best)– 89th Percentile and .800 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (worst among qualified SPs)– first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .450 (9-for-20) against Nathan Eovaldi — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed an OPS of 1.375 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .700 — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Padres are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 1-104 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 7-97 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Padres are just 30-105 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rangers are just 9-164 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Rangers are just 5-89 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Rangers are just 92-61 (.601) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Rangers are 41-24 (.631) after a home win since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Padres are batting .462 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Padres are batting .280 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .389 (400 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
13% of Rangers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,023/15,483 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Rangers hitters have a swing rate of 36% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,594 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .911 (581 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.049.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,050 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 303 of 3,129 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Rangers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rangers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
- Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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