- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Padres / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Padres are 46-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-45 ATS.
Padres vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-6, 3.44 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 1-1, 3.27 ERA
Padres vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 10.5 -120 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | U 10.5 +100 | -115 |
Padres vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 69% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 45-42 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 5.43% ROI).
- 46-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.59% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -13.53% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-45 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -12.96% ROI).
- 43-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -3.62% ROI
- 39-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -4.13% ROI
Red Sox vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ha-seong Kim (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Josh Winckowski (BOS) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .113 (11-for-97) against Matt Waldron versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (20/108) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .075 (3-for-40) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .161 (18-for-112) against Matt Waldron this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .281 (207-for-737) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (426/820) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has struck out just 13% (9/67) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (708/1,417) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Padres are just 7-96 (.068) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Padres are just 11-21 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Red Sox are just 4-173 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 35-29 (.547) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Red Sox are 21-5 (.808) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Padres are batting .280 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres hitters have just 588 strikeouts in 3,268 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 250 strikeouts in 888 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 988 strikeouts in 4,013 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,794 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 30 of 237 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (6,024 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 214 of 3,071 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have 143 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 430 batters (6%) over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Padres vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
