- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Reds
- Padres vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Padres / Reds TV Channel: ESPN+ | BSOH | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Thursday, May 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Padres are 26-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 27-22 ATS.
Padres vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 2-5, 5.04 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 2-3, 4.38 ERA
Padres vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -115 | -110 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -105 | -110 |
Padres vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 away games (+30.00 Units / 143% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+20.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 39 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 35 games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 away games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 21 games at home (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 27-25 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 5.93% ROI).
- 26-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 1.5% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -10.23% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-22 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 4.46% ROI).
- 20-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -17.7% ROI
- 23-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -7.27% ROI
- 24-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -2.71% ROI
Reds vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hurtubise (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| David Peralta (LAD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Reds vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Mike Ford (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Reds vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of 1.186 (78 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .732 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .433 (13-for-30) against Matt Waldron this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (18/71) against Matt Waldron against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (9/74) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (99/395) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Frankie Montas’ fastballs (190/324) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has struck out just 14% (12/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — ninth Percentile.
Frankie Montas has thrown his fastball for a strike 73% (238/324) of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 1-90 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 7-19 (.269) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Padres are just 8-142 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 19-34 (.358) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 24-27 (.471) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 46-51 (.474) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are just 56-43 (.566) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 45-19 (.703) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .287 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Padres are batting .302 on the road this month (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Padres hitters have 9 extra-base hits out of 54 total hits (just 17%) against LHP this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Padres are batting .258 this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .125 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Reds are batting just .105 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .217 (951 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds hitters are slugging just .317 this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,131 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this month (19 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .296 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Padres vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
