- The Yankees are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Yankees Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Yankees TV Channel: YES | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+125) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-150) on Monday, May 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY.
This season, the Padres are 22-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 17-17 ATS.
Padres vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-1, 1.78 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 4-3, 3.43 ERA
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -180 | O 7.5 -105 | +125 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -150 |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.20 Units / 284% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+6.85 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.00 Units / 156% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.57 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 33 games (+5.52 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+4.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 20-13 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 15.01% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.4 Units / 24.7% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -14.43% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 8.26% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 17-17 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 3.44% ROI).
- 19-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -1.86% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -6.53% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.47 Units / 0.85% ROI
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .086 (70 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .173 (70 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .492 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .117 (7 Total Bases / 60 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .283 (66 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .721 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 41% (47/116) against Carlos Rodon this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a just .241 SLG vs right-handed batters this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 92nd Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .454 vs right-handed batters last season — sixth worst among qualified SPs– 10th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has walked 13% of right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (7-for-56) against Carlos Rodon when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Padres are 79-8 (.908) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Padres are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Padres are 70-44 (.614) after a win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 46-28 (.622) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Padres (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .202 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.66 (163.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.73.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
More MLB Reading:
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