- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Yankees
- Padres vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Yankees TV Channel: TBS | Max | YES | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-110) on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY, NY.
This season, the Padres are 23-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 17-18 ATS.
Padres vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 4-1, 2.08 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 0-1, 5.53 ERA
Padres vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -120 | -110 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 +100 | -110 |
Padres vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+11.90 Units / 297% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.45 Units / 63% ROI)
- Michael King has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Michael King has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+19.40 Units / 194% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.37 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 15 games (+3.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.61 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 21-13 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 16.7% ROI).
- 23-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 27.26% ROI
- 13-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -16.26% ROI
- 20-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.35 Units / 9.95% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 17-18 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.77% ROI).
- 19-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -4.85% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -8.39% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.47 Units / 2.62% ROI
Yankees vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -285 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Yankees vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Yankees vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% (113 SO in 342 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (8-for-56) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .235 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (8-for-56) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 97th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of just .179 (10 Total Bases / 56 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since the 2023 season is 383.1 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 398.8
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 18% (43/243) against Clarke Schmidt in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt struck out 32% (58/184) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has an average spin rate of 2973.6 RPM on sliders since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 2435.4 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Padres are 22-11 (.667) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 15-6 (.714) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Padres were 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Padres are 92-5 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Yankees are 46-28 (.622) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Padres (10th best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 89-29 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .624.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .271 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .429 (163 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have allowed 0.47 runs per game (16/34) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.31.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .232 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
More MLB Reading:
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