- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Phillies vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Blue Jays TV Channel: NSPA | WCAU | RSN | RSN1
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-105) on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Phillies are 37-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 36-24 ATS.
Phillies vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Mick Abel 1-0, 0.00 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 2-2, 3.86 ERA
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -102 | -115 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -118 | -105 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+16.60 Units / 277% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+12.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games (+24.90 Units / 622% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+14.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 42 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.39 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.96 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 31-29 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -1.06% ROI).
- 37-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 5.26% ROI
- 27-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -12.24% ROI
- 32-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 3.87% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 36-24 against the Run Line (+8.85 Units / 10.62% ROI).
- 31-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.54 Units / 2.15% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -2.36% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -5.8% ROI
Blue Jays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 56% of the time (815/1,452) when behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 12% (13 SO in 108 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 21% (288/1,362) against Jose Berrios in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 57% of the time (468/827) when behind in the count since last season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 8-14 (.364) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Phillies are 20-61 (.247) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies are 33-119 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Phillies are 113-22 (.837) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays were just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Blue Jays are just 24-129 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Blue Jays are just 88-9 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Phillies batted .256 with two outs in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .774 (2,661 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
30% of Blue Jays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .267 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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