- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Phillies vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+100) on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Phillies are 37-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 37-24 ATS.
Phillies vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 5-1, 3.60 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 5-3, 3.82 ERA
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+15.60 Units / 223% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+23.90 Units / 478% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Chris Bassitt has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 68% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+8.39 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+7.96 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 31-30 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 37-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 4.11% ROI
- 27-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -13.68% ROI
- 33-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 5.3% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 37-24 against the Run Line (+9.85 Units / 11.57% ROI).
- 32-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.54 Units / 3.49% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -3.97% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -4.23% ROI
Blue Jays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .420 (21-for-50) against Jesus Luzardo over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .811 (30 Total Bases / 37 ABs) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .359 — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .486 (18-for-37) against Jesus Luzardo in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .525 (40 PA’s) against right-handed batters in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .287 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .547 (35 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — second Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .321 (45-for-140) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Chris Bassitt walked 31 of 279 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
63% of Chris Bassitt’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies are 8-14 (.364) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Phillies are 14-138 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies are 20-61 (.247) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are just 23-3 (.885) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Blue Jays are just 22-94 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are just 24-129 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 67% of their games (35.8% ROI) when underdogs since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies hitters slugged .441 against LHP in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
30% of Blue Jays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .268 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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