- The Phillies are +105 favorites vs the Braves
- Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NSPA | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-125) on Thursday, April 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Phillies are 8-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 4-7 ATS.
Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-0, 1.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 1-0, 0.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -125 | +105 |
| Braves | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 +105 | -125 |
Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 62% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.15 Units / 84% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Schwellenbach has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.65 Units / 102% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Spencer Schwellenbach has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.35 Units / 84% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 151 games (+2.43 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+1.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 8-3 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 21.54% ROI).
- 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 27.58% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -30.61% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 22.59% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 4-7 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -29.89% ROI).
- 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -63.61% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 12.45% ROI
Braves vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Braves vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 41% (19 SO in 46 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 70% (19 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .062 (1 Total Bases / 16 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 27 AB’s against Spencer Schwellenbach on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .206 — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .109 (46 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OPS of just .177 (46 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .650 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .068 (3-for-44) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 59-28 (.678) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Phillies are 45-25 (.643) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Phillies are 12-123 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are just 2-9 (.182) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Braves are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Braves are just 2-9 (.182) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 157-11 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,075 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies have scored 2.73 runs per game (30/11) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.38.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 948 of 12,534 batters (8%) since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have walked 91 of 1,540 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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