- The Phillies are -118 favorites vs the Cubs
- Phillies vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Phillies / Cubs TV Channel: FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (-118) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-102) on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 13-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 15-12 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-0, 2.08 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Ben Brown 2-1, 4.57 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +154 | O 7 -115 | -118 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 7 -105 | -102 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+9.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+24.50 Units / 245% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+19.55 Units / 78% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 23 games (+14.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 13-13 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -9.97% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -9.56% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -11.54% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 3.15% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 15-12 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 13.15% ROI).
- 17-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 20.42% ROI
- 17-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 25.56% ROI
- 9-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.9 Units / -32.73% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -1600 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Justin Turner (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown (CHC) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
31% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of just .208 (25 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 54% (26 SO in 48 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 95th Percentile.
31% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (159/403) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (33/93) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 54% of the time (60/111) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Ben Brown has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (462/1,252) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 14-23 (.378) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 63-31 (.670) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Phillies are 112-63 (.640) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are 1-8 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Cubs are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
The Cubs are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Cubs are 8-5 (.615) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .303 (522 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .343 (2,230 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,230 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .538 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .971 (166 PA’s) against LHP this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .832 (542 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .669.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .922 (229 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .678.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 43% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Cubs pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs allowed 3.41 runs per game (276/81) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
More MLB Reading:
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