- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Cubs
- Phillies vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Cubs TV Channel: ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-115) on Sunday, April 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 14-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 15-13 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-5, 6.43 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 1-1, 4.73 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -102 | -105 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -118 | -115 |
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+17.50 Units / 219% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+17.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.45 Units / 73% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+1.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 14-13 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -5.2% ROI).
- 14-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -7.77% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -1.01% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 15-13 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 7.43% ROI).
- 17-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 16.72% ROI
- 18-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 28.03% ROI
- 9-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -35.29% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (448/1,288) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 34% of the time (207/613) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .514 (131 Total Bases / 255 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon allowed an OBP of just .217 (129 PA’s) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (30 Total Bases / 42 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — second Percentile.
Jameson Taillon had a strikeout rate of just 15% (39/252) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 4% of right-handed batters since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are just 14-23 (.378) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 94-20 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are 1-9 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Cubs are 37-12 (.755) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Cubs are 8-5 (.615) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .271 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,243 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .502 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .880 (264 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .832 (542 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .670.
The Cubs are batting .315 against LHP this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Phillies pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out in the zone 44% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers had an ERA of 3.08 (733.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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