- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Phillies vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Phillies are 22-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 20-18 ATS.
Phillies vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 0-0, 17.20 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 3-2, 4.34 ERA
Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -105 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -170 | U 7.5 -115 | +105 |
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+17.20 Units / 172% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 19-19 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -3.97% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -9.63% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.96% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 20-18 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -2.34% ROI).
- 23-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 19.8% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 6.63% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -14.01% ROI
Guardians vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Guardians vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (45/73) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 229 of Ranger Suarez’s 488 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 47%) since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez had an average spin rate of 1941.1 RPM on fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 2236.7 — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased 136 of Ranger Suarez’s 312 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 44%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (25/107) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 13% (14/108) against Tanner Bibee this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
59% of Tanner Bibee’s strikeouts are in the zone since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 93rd Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has a first-pitch in-zone of just 17% (27/160) this season — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Phillies are 13-133 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 17-59 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Phillies are 67-33 (.670) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Guardians are 90-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 101-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 96-2 (.980) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .435 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
More MLB Reading:
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