- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSP+
The Philadelphia Phillies (-190) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+155) on Friday, April 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-3 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 0-1, 13.51 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 0-0, 9.01 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -115 | O 8.5 +100 | -190 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -120 | +155 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 65.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+12.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 132% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Earned Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 2-4 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -34.23% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -40% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 59.85% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -67.42% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 3-3 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -21.26% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -19.01% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -68.42% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gallo | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Harper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Meneses | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Lipscomb | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Nola | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -165 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (216/589) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (11/24) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (24/65) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .293 (210-for-717) against Patrick Corbin in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strike rate of just 58% (451/776) in two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OBP of .344 (787 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .936 (189 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .693 — second Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 27-118 (.186) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 19-121 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 85-48 (.639) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 21-38 (.356) after a home win since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 39-171 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 61-104 (.370) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 64-43 (.598) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .391 (74 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Phillies hitters have 34 strikeouts in 128 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .258 (128 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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