- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSP+
The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-4 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 0-0, 5.79 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 0-0, 5.40 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -120 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 +100 | +145 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+11.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.60 Units / 110% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+7.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games (+6.65 Units / 119% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -17.82% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -21.54% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 36.13% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -45.1% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 3-4 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -29.38% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -30.5% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 35.71% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -46.1% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harper | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| T. Realmuto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Meneses | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Lipscomb | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Vargas | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Suarez | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Irvin | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 52% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (288/553) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (171/280) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (45/73) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (708/1,307) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (103/521) against Jake Irvin since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 41% (400/987) against Jake Irvin in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (21/43) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies were 52-37 (.584) after a win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Phillies are 10-128 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Phillies are 7-68 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 61-105 (.367) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 40-65 (.381) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 39-172 (.185) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 46-81 (.362) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (3,740 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .419 (43 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 1,678 strikeouts in 8,456 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 20 of 272 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .370 (1,490 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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