- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-5 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 0-0, 3.60 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 0-0, 5.07 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 +100 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -120 | +130 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 away games (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 away games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+8.55 Units / 130% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.60 Units / 110% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+7.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 89% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -5.56% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -9.44% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 19.21% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -28% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 3-5 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -35.98% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -39.13% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 18.75% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -28.98% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gallo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Meneses | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Vargas | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Lipscomb | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gore | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Sanchez | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (14/107) against Cristopher Sanchez on changeups since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 64% (83/129) against Cristopher Sanchez on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (85/134) against Cristopher Sanchez on non-fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore walked 22 of 168 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 36% (65/180) against MacKenzie Gore on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore had a strikeout rate of 32% (37/115) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 33 of 267 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Phillies are 48-33 (.593) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Phillies are 86-48 (.642) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 21-38 (.356) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 64-43 (.598) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Nationals are just 40-66 (.377) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 46-81 (.362) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .508 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .778 (80 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Phillies hitters are slugging .429 since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (3,744 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have 593 extra-base hits out of 1,913 total hits (just 31%) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 22 of 306 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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