- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSP+ | WCAU
The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Thursday, March 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC, USA.
This preseason, the Phillies were 9-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals were 9-9 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +118 | O 7 +100 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 7 -120 | +130 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 25 away games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.45 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in his last game at home (+7.50 Units / 750% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 80% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 151 games (+2.43 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 1 games (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this preseason, the Phillies were 11-8 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 11.62% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -1.54% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.55 Units / 34.24% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -42.27% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this preseason, the Nationals were 9-9 against the Run Line (-2.24 Units / -9.19% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -7.73% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -8.14% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 160-39 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Phillies are 25-105 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2024 They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 142-182 (.438) since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals were just 43-47 (.478) after a loss in 2024 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Nationals are just 45-80 (.360) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters are slugging .513 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Phillies are batting .254 with two outs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Phillies are batting .291 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .945 (2,217 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,629 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 914 of 12,124 batters (7%) since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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