- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSP+
The Philadelphia Phillies (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Saturday, March 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 0-0 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -120 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 9 +100 | +135 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 games (+5.65 Units / 110% ROI)
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Hits Allowed Under in his last 2 games (+2.15 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.75 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.80 Units / 160% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+3.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jake Irvin has hit the Earned Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 46% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 151 games (+2.43 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 1 games (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 154 games (+7.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Paul DeJong (WSH) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in 2023 — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.8 MPH in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 49% (255/515) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 21% (97/456) versus Jesus Luzardo in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 91st Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin had a strikeout rate of just 17% (51/297) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 10th Percentile.
Jake Irvin threw his curveball 32% of the time (201/622) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (462/965) with two-strikes since last season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies were 20-23 (.465) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2024 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Phillies are 160-39 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Phillies were 28-1 (.966) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .810.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 45-80 (.360) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 42-146 (.223) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Nationals are just 72-90 (.444) at home since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2024 They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,946 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Games involving the Phillies have gone OVER in 83% of their games (71.8% ROI) when underdogs in 2024 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .945 (2,221 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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