- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Saturday, April 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 17-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-15 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 4-0, 1.42 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-1, 1.82 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -115 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 games (+15.50 Units / 111% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 13-14 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -2.77% ROI).
- 17-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 7.04% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -18.92% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 9.06% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-15 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 2.2% ROI).
- 14-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -6.56% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -11.56% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 79.9 MPH (61 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8 — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.9 MPH this season (61 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of 83% (69/83) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .430 (118 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .686 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
6 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among among NL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .198 (111 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs– 100th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .019 (1-for-52) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .103 (58 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 19-125 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Phillies are 22-16 (.579) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Phillies are 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Phillies are 50-36 (.581) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 7-131 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are 23-25 (.479) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Padres are just 1-80 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .502 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .374 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Phillies hitters are slugging .434 since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 564 walks in 5,337 PA’s (11%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have put 43% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres hitters have drawn 972 walks in 9,645 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 153 walks in 1,582 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since last season (4,588 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Phillies vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
